The phase relations among atmospheric CO2 content, temperature and global ice volume over the past 420 ka

Quaternary Science Reviews 20 (2001) 583}589
Manfred Mudelsee
Institute of Meteorology, University of Leipzig, Stephanstr. 3, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany

Abstract
The phase relations (leads/lags) among atmospheric CO2 content, temperature and global ice volume are key to understanding the causes of glacial-interglacial (G-IG) climate transitions. Comparing the CO2​ record with other proxy variables from the Vostok ice core and stacked marine oxygen isotope records, allows the phase relations among these variables, over the last four G-IG cycles, to be estimated. Lagged, generalized least-squares regression provides an efficient and precise technique for this estimation. Bootstrap resampling allows account to be taken of measurement and timescale errors. Over the full 420 ka of the Vostok record, CO2 variations lag behind atmospheric temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere by 1.3 ± 1.0 ka, and lead over global ice-volume variations by 2.7 ± 1.3 ka. However, signicant short-term changes in the lag of CO2 relative to temperature, subsequent to Terminations II and III, are also detected.

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