Papers

Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Science
28 August 1981, Volume 213, Number 4511

J. Hansen, D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, G. Russell

Summary.
The global temperature rose by 0.20C between the middle 1960’s and
1980, yielding a warming of 0.4°C in the past century. This temperature increase is
consistent with the calculated greenhouse effect due to measured increases of
atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variations of volcanic aerosols and possibly solar
luminosity appear to be primary causes of observed fluctuations about the mean trend
of increasing temperature. It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming
should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the
century, and there is a high probability of warming in the 1980’s. Potential effects on
climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North
America and central Asia as part of a shifting of climatic zones, erosion of the West
Antarctic ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level, and opening of the
fabled Northwest Passage.

The Relationship between Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration and Global Temperature for the Last 425 Million Years

MDPI climate
W. Jackson Davis

Received: 8 August 2017 / Revised: 15 September 2017 / Accepted: 22 September 2017 / Published: 29 September 2017

Abstract
Assessing human impacts on climate and biodiversity requires an understanding of the relationship between the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Earth’s atmosphere and global temperature (T). Here I explore this relationship empirically using comprehensive, recently-compiled databases of stable-isotope proxies from the Phanerozoic Eon (~540 million years before the present) and through complementary modeling using the atmospheric absorption/transmittance code MODTRAN. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is correlated weakly but negatively with linearly-detrended T proxies over the last 425 million years. Of 68 correlation coefficients (half non-parametric) between CO2 and T proxies encompassing all known major Phanerozoic climate transitions, 77.9% are non-discernible (p > 0.05) and 60.0% of discernible correlations are negative. Marginal radiative forcing (ΔRFCO2), the change in forcing at the top of the troposphere associated with a unit increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, was computed using MODTRAN. The correlation between ΔRFCO2 and linearly-detrended T across the Phanerozoic Eon is positive and discernible, but only 2.6% of variance in T is attributable to variance in ΔRFCO2. Of 68 correlation coefficients (half non-parametric) between ΔRFCO2 and T proxies encompassing all known major Phanerozoic climate transitions, 75.0% are non-discernible and 41.2% of discernible correlations are negative. Spectral analysis, auto- and cross-correlation show that proxies for T, atmospheric CO2 concentration and ΔRFCO2 oscillate across the Phanerozoic, and cycles of CO2 and ΔRFCO2 are antiphasic. A prominent 15 million-year CO2 cycle coincides closely with identified mass extinctions of the past, suggesting a pressing need for research on the relationship between CO2, biodiversity extinction, and related carbon policies. This study demonstrates that changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration did not cause temperature change in the ancient climate.

180 YEARS OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 GAS ANALYSIS BY CHEMICAL METHODS

by Ernst-Georg Beck

Reprinted from ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT
VOLUME 18 No. 2 2007

ABSTRACT
More than 90,000 accurate chemical analyses of CO2 in air since 1812 are summarised. The historic chemical data reveal that changes in CO2 track changes in temperature, and therefore climate in contrast to the simple, monotonically increasing CO2 trend depicted in the post-1990 literature on climate-change. Since 1812, the CO2 concentration in northern hemispheric air has fluctuated exhibiting three high level maxima around 1825, 1857 and 1942 the latter showing more than 400 ppm. Between 1857 and 1958, the Pettenkofer process was the standard analytical method for determining atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, and usually achieved an accuracy better than 3%. These determinations were made by several scientists of Nobel Prize level distinction. Following Callendar (1938), modern climatologists have generally ignored the historic determinations of CO2, despite the techniques being standard text book procedures in several different disciplines. Chemical methods were discredited as unreliable choosing only few which fit the assumption of a climate CO2 connection.

The potency of carbon dioxide (CO2) as a greenhouse gas

By Antero Ollila
September 2014

Abstract
According to this study the commonly applied radiative forcing (RF) value of 3.7 Wm-2 for CO2 concentration of 560 ppm includes water feedback. The same value without water feedback is 2.16 Wm-2 which is 41.6 % smaller. Spectral analyses show that the contribution of CO2 in the greenhouse (GH) phenomenon is about 11 % and water’s strength in the present climate in comparison to CO2 is 15.2. The author has analyzed the value of the climate sensitivity (CS) and the climate sensitivity parameter () using three different calculation bases. These methods include energy balance calculations, infrared radiation absorption in the atmosphere, and the changes in outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere. According to the analyzed results, the equilibrium CS (ECS) is at maximum 0.6 °C and the best estimate of  is 0.268 K/(Wm-2 ) without any feedback mechanisms. The latest warming scenarios of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for different CO2 concentrations until the year 2100 include the same feedbacks as the 2011 warming i.e. only water feedback. The ECS value of 3.0 °C would mean that other feedback mechanisms should be stronger than water feedback. So far there is no evidence about these mechanisms, even though 40 % of the change from 280 ppm to 560 ppm has already happened. The relative humidity trends since 1948 show descending development which gives no basis for using positive water feedback in any warming calculations. Cloudiness changes could explain the recent stagnation in global warming.

Press Release on Paper Showing the Invalidity of the EPA claim that CO2 is a pollutant

THS Research Files April, 2017

A just released peer reviewed Climate Science Research Report has proven that it is all but certain that EPA’s basic claim that CO2 is a pollutant is totally false. All research was done pro bono.

This research failed to find that the steadily rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations have had a statistically significant impact on any of the 14 temperature data sets that were analyzed. The tropospheric and surface temperature data measurements that were analyzed were taken by many different entities using balloons, satellites, buoys and various land based techniques. Needless to say, if regardless of data source, the analysis results are the same, the analysis findings should be considered highly credible.

Invalidity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding

On the Existence of a “Tropical Hot Spot” & The Validity of EPA’s CO2Endangerment Finding

Abridged Research Report
Second Edition
Dr. James P. Wallace III, Dr. John R. Christy, Dr. Joseph S. D’Aleo
April 20, 2017

Excerpted summary of this peer-reviewed science: “The analysis results invalidate EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding, including the climate models that EPA has claimed can be relied upon for policy analysis purposes. Moreover, these research results clearly demonstrate that once the solar, volcanic and oceanic activity, that is, natural factor,impacts on temperature data are accounted for, there is no “record setting” warming to be concerned about.”

Univariate statistical analysis of environmental (compositional) data:Problems and possibilities

Peter Filzmoser, Karel Hron, Clemens Reimann

Received 8 May 2009
Received in revised form 24 July 2009
Accepted 5 August 200

abstract

For almost 30 years it has been known that compositional (closed) data have special geometrical properties.In environmental sciences, where the concentration of chemical elements in different sample materials isinvestigated, almost all datasets are compositional. In general, compositional data are parts of a whole whichonly give relative information. Data that sum up to a constant, e.g. 100wt.%, 1,000,000 mg/kg are the bestknown example. It is widely neglected that the “closure” characteristic remains even if only one of all possible elements is measured, it is an inherent property of compositional data. No variable is free to vary independent of all the others. Existing transformations to “open” closed data are seldom applied. They are more complicated than a logtransformation and the relationship to the original data unit is lost. Results obtained when using classical statistical techniques for data analysis appeared reasonable and the possible consequences of working with closed data were rarely questioned. Here the simple univariate case of data analysis is investigated. It can be demonstrated that data closure must be overcome prior to calculating even simple statistical measures like mean or standard deviation or plotting graphs of the data distribution, e.g. a histogram. Some measures like the standard deviation (or the variance) make no statistical sense with closed data and all statistical tests building on the standard deviation (or variance) will thus provide erroneous results if used with the original data.

Has global warming already arrived?

Elsevier
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
Volume 182, January 2019, Pages 31-38

C.A.Varotsos, M.N.Efstathiou

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2018.10.020
Highlights

  • The global warming during 1978–2018 was not more enhanced at high latitudes near the surface.
  • The intrinsic properties of the lower stratospheric temperature are not related to those in the troposphere.
  • The results obtained do not reveal the global warming occurrence.